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Market Risk for the PV Panel Supply & Pricing in Q3 & Q4 2018?
Here is my quick napkin list of factors that could affected the PV supply & pricing this year:
• Potentially waning government policy and subsidy support. In a challenging economic environment, governments that face austerity measures could reduce financial support of solar policies and subsidies.
• Potential & ongoing tariff risk on inverters and other BOS. The recent anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigation case in the U.S. could induce further tariff decisions by China and the EU, potentially posing challenges to all companies along the solar value chain.
• Lower than expected global demand for solar modules leading to weaker ASPs. If the global solar market experiences lower than expected growth, then the industry could be faced with a substantial oversupply condition resulting in lower volumes and ASPs. We are seeing this currently on poly modules lowering 2-3 cents/watt from the Intersolar show in early July.
• Polysilicon prices decrease at a slower rate than module ASPs. If polysilicon ASPs decrease at a slower rate than module ASPs, then the company could experience more margin contraction given its high exposure to the spot poly market.